UFC London 2 Betting Guide
UFC London was such a hit in March that the promotion resumed a few months later. Many UK stars who made the evening memorable will also reappear.
UFC London 2: Blaydes vs. Aspinall will take place on Saturday from the O2 Arena in London, England. Which MMA bets stand out on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Molly McCann and Marc Diakiese will both win (-192; 2.25 units)
Matt Schnell’s rally that will live on in the UFC record books was much less fun considering his opponent was in last week’s home-and-away game. It dropped the parlay record to 12-8 in 2022, but I don’t mind putting units and juice on this one to bounce back.
Fittingly, a pair of England fighters are inside this week. Both Molly McCann (-460) and Marc Diakiese (-400) will see phenomenal matches for them.
Based in Liverpool, McCann benefited from the rocket ship attached to the stardom of team-mate Paddy Pimblett. Her UFC career was slipping due to her 34% takedown defense, but now with preferential treatment from the promotion, she will see her second straight opponent without much of a fight.
Hannah Goldy is averaging just 0.61 kills per 15 minutes and she puts on 10 pounds in weight for this fight. She’s just unlikely to knock McCann down, and in that case, McCann’s 5.83 all-important strikes per minute with 50% accuracy is as good as the striking offense in her division. Goldy’s hitting defense at 50% to McCann’s (64%) is a real concern.
The second leg is Diakiese from Yorkshire, and I love watching the fighters use clever game plans to learn their own strengths like he just did. Diakiese was on a 2-5 slip trying to strike with the best strikers at lightweight, and it didn’t go well. He returned to his struggle earning 11 knockouts in his last bout in a comfortable win.
He will have a wonderful opportunity to do the same on Saturday. His opponent, Damir Hadzovic, has just 37% defense against the takedown. He was downed 4.0 times on average in his UFC losses. I’d also give Diakiese – aptly nicknamed ‘Bonecrusher’ – an edge on the feet with his power, but the path to least resistance is obvious through grappling.
Chris Curtis to win (-113; 1.0 units)
Darren Till’s injury forced him to pull out a card he had been aiming for for months, but it set up a better fight.
Jack Hermansson will now face Chris Curtis (-113) in the middleweight main event, and that tells me that Curtis is currently sitting in a pick ’em with the longtime middleweight stalwart.
Curtis answered all the questions a few weeks ago against legendary grappler Rodolfo Vieira. He defended all 20 takedowns to thwart any submission danger, and Curtis’ 100% defense must now be considered one of the elite marks in the sport. Vieira had landed multiple kills on every opponent up to this point.
In a thrilling match, few can match “The Action Man”. Curtis lands 7.23 significant strikes per minute with 65% accuracy, the best card. His striking defense (48%) is a bit of a concern, but he hasn’t even been shaken by four power forwards since his debut.
Hermansson, if unable to land takedowns as well, should be a step behind on the strike. It clocks in at just 4.97 significant keystrokes per minute with 44% accuracy. His defense (54%) is better, but not up to his attacking delay.
With only two weeks’ notice, Curtis is getting a lot of respect from bettors. Chris’ teammate Sean Strickland dismantled Hermansson earlier this year with less efficient peripherals, so the American is absolutely the process game in this one.
Darts Throw of the Week: Kyle Nelson by submission (+1,100; 0.5 units)
Jai Herbert covered the spread at UFC London 1 knocking down Ilia Topuria and winning the first round as a huge underdog, but he was quickly flattened by Topuria in the second.
Herbert’s UFC career has been stuck at neutral since his 2020 debut. He’s a one-dimensional forward with poor offensive accuracy (36%) and poor defense (45%). This is a bad combo, and results in an overall hit rate of -0.43.
“The Black Country Banger” has solid power (three knockdowns in four fights) that saved him, but one thing he can’t do is wrestle. He only has a 42% takedown defense and was choked out by Renato Moicano two fights ago.
Whereas Kyle Nelson (+230) isn’t the best grappler in the world, he can do it a bit. His rate of 1.90 submission attempts per 15 minutes is actually fourth best on this card.
Herbert’s position as a -310 favorite here is based on his power. He has -105 to win by KO. If that doesn’t materialize, Nelson could find a way to plant Herbert on the mat where he will have huge technical advantages.
This flyer only has an implied hit probability of 8.3%. Personally, that’s way too low for how lost Herbert has looked so far.